Your 30-year wealth, projected. PSLF vs Refinance, side by side.
See where your two biggest decisions (loan strategy + savings rate) leave you at year 10, 20, and 30. Find the breakeven year. Pick the path that builds more.
Your inputs
$120K
$125K
Average NP pay growth: 2.5 to 3.5% per year.
3.0%
15%
401k or 403b. Tax-deferred.
6%
7.05%
5.50%
Your 30-year wealth projection
Best Choice
SAVE + PSLF
Builds more wealth over 30 years given your inputs.
Year 10 wealth
$0
Selected path
Year 20 wealth
$0
Selected path
Year 30 wealth
$0
Selected path
Net wealth over time: PSLF / Selected path vs Refinance
Projections are estimates based on 2026 federal rates, simplified amortization, and a 7% nominal investment return assumption. Actual outcomes depend on market returns, salary trajectory, IDR recertification, refinance terms, and federal policy changes. SAVE plan availability is subject to ongoing federal litigation. This tool is informational, not financial advice.
How this projection works
We simulate 30 years of cash flow given your starting salary, raises, debt, and chosen loan strategy. Every dollar not consumed by loan payments, taxes, or living expenses goes to either retirement (tax-deferred at a 7% nominal return) or taxable savings (also at 7%). Net wealth at any year equals retirement balance plus taxable savings minus remaining loan balance.
The PSLF path uses SAVE-style payments capped at 10% of discretionary income (income above 225% of the federal poverty line) for 10 years, then forgives the remaining federal balance tax-free. The Refinance path locks in a fixed rate over 10 years and forfeits PSLF, IDR, and federal protections.
Why the breakeven year matters
Refinancing usually wins on monthly cash flow if your refi rate is materially below your federal rate. But if you qualify for PSLF, the forgiven balance often crosses over the refi savings somewhere between year 6 and year 12. After that, PSLF compounds: lower monthly payments mean more invested earlier, and tax-free forgiveness means a one-time boost to net worth.
The breakeven year is the moment PSLF wealth catches up with Refinance wealth. Before it, refi looks better on paper. After it, PSLF pulls ahead and rarely loses again.
Frequently asked questions
Why is the savings rate based on net income?
We approximate effective tax (federal + FICA + state) at 26% of gross to keep the model honest. Your true savings rate is what is left after taxes, loans, and living expenses, then re-multiplied across 30 years.
What return assumption do you use?
7% nominal annual return on both retirement and taxable balances. Long-run S&P 500 average has been ~10% nominal, ~7% real after inflation. We use 7% nominal as a conservative planning number that already bakes in some drag.
Does this account for taxes on forgiven IDR balances?
PSLF forgiveness is tax-free. Standard IDR forgiveness (after 20-25 years on PAYE / IBR / SAVE without PSLF) is currently treated as taxable income at the federal level after 2025. We approximate that tax bomb in the non-PSLF SAVE / PAYE scenarios.
How accurate is this?
Directionally accurate within ~10% for the relative comparison between paths. Absolute dollar amounts are estimates. Use this to choose between strategies, not to predict your exact net worth.